White Sox @ Mariners
2026-05-20Win probability
CWS
34.0%
SEA
51.6%
Extras needed
14.4%
Expected runs
CWS expected
3.70
SEA expected
4.27
Total expected
7.97
Total — 10/median/90
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Most likely final scores
| Score (CWS–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.06% |
| 4 – 4 | 4.05% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.86% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.58% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.39% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.21% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.06% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.06% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 18.0% | 82.0% |
| 6.5 | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| 7.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 8.5 | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 9.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →