MLB Sims

Indians @ Tigers

2026-05-20

Comerica Park · park factor 0.96 · first pitch 2026-05-20T22:40:00Z

Win probability

CLE
37.2%
DET
49.6%
Extras needed
13.3%

Expected runs

CLE expected
4.05
DET expected
4.45
Total expected
8.51
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (CLE–DET)Probability
3 – 44.18%
4 – 43.79%
4 – 53.36%
4 – 33.30%
3 – 53.23%
3 – 33.01%
5 – 42.96%
5 – 32.91%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 23.8% 76.2%
6.5 74.7% 25.3%
7.5 61.8% 38.2%
8.5 48.2% 51.8%
9.5 35.6% 64.4%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →