Indians @ Tigers
2026-05-20Win probability
CLE
37.2%
DET
49.6%
Extras needed
13.3%
Expected runs
CLE expected
4.05
DET expected
4.45
Total expected
8.51
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (CLE–DET) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.18% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.79% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.36% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.30% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.01% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.96% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.91% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| 6.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 7.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 8.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 9.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →