Reds @ Phillies
2026-05-20Win probability
CIN
41.5%
PHI
44.9%
Extras needed
13.7%
Expected runs
CIN expected
4.73
PHI expected
4.85
Total expected
9.58
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CIN–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.60% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.32% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.19% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.08% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.84% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.80% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.69% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.61% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| 6.5 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 7.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 8.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 9.5 | 48.3% | 51.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →