Red Sox @ Royals
2026-05-20Win probability
BOS
41.7%
KC
44.6%
Extras needed
13.6%
Expected runs
BOS expected
4.35
KC expected
4.41
Total expected
8.76
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (BOS–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.71% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.65% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.57% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.34% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.21% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.17% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.12% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.00% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| 6.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 7.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| 8.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 9.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →