Orioles @ Rays
2026-05-20Win probability
BAL
10.7%
TB
81.7%
Extras needed
7.6%
Expected runs
BAL expected
3.28
TB expected
6.66
Total expected
9.94
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (BAL–TB) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 6 | 3.58% |
| 3 – 7 | 3.22% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.01% |
| 2 – 7 | 2.96% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.95% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.93% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.81% |
| 2 – 6 | 2.80% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| 6.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| 7.5 | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 8.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 9.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →