Braves @ Marlins
2026-05-20Win probability
ATL
60.2%
MIA
27.2%
Extras needed
12.6%
Expected runs
ATL expected
5.09
MIA expected
3.83
Total expected
8.92
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–MIA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.85% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.54% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.41% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.22% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.19% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.86% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.85% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.82% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 6.5 | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 7.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 8.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 9.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →