Blue Jays @ Yankees
2026-05-19Win probability
TOR
18.1%
NYY
71.7%
Extras needed
10.2%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.58
NYY expected
5.91
Total expected
9.49
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–NYY) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.42% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.34% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.26% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.21% |
| 2 – 6 | 3.02% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.98% |
| 3 – 7 | 2.87% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.60% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 6.5 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 7.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 8.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 9.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →