MLB Sims

Giants @ D-backs

2026-05-19

Chase Field · park factor 1.02 · first pitch 2026-05-20T01:40:00Z

Win probability

SF
29.2%
ARI
57.3%
Extras needed
13.5%

Expected runs

SF expected
3.64
ARI expected
4.65
Total expected
8.29
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (SF–ARI)Probability
3 – 44.28%
4 – 43.72%
3 – 53.52%
3 – 33.45%
2 – 43.34%
4 – 53.30%
2 – 53.17%
3 – 62.81%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 21.5% 78.5%
6.5 72.8% 27.2%
7.5 59.1% 40.9%
8.5 44.8% 55.2%
9.5 31.9% 68.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →