Pirates @ Cardinals
2026-05-19Win probability
PIT
55.2%
STL
30.9%
Extras needed
13.9%
Expected runs
PIT expected
4.42
STL expected
3.52
Total expected
7.95
Total — 10/median/90
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Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–STL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.52% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.62% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.61% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.43% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.36% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.34% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.33% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.16% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 17.4% | 82.6% |
| 6.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 7.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 8.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 9.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →