Mets @ Nationals
2026-05-19Win probability
NYM
61.1%
WSH
28.2%
Extras needed
10.7%
Expected runs
NYM expected
5.95
WSH expected
4.56
Total expected
10.51
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 4 | 3.38% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.07% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.91% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.73% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.60% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.57% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.56% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.44% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 47.9% | 52.0% |
| 6.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| 7.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 8.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 9.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →