MLB Sims

Brewers @ Cubs

2026-05-19

Wrigley Field · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-19T23:40:00Z

Win probability

MIL
36.9%
CHC
48.6%
Extras needed
14.5%

Expected runs

MIL expected
3.96
CHC expected
4.38
Total expected
8.34
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (MIL–CHC)Probability
4 – 43.83%
4 – 33.73%
3 – 43.56%
3 – 53.33%
3 – 33.30%
4 – 53.10%
5 – 43.10%
5 – 52.83%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 22.1% 77.9%
6.5 72.7% 27.3%
7.5 59.5% 40.5%
8.5 45.6% 54.4%
9.5 32.7% 67.3%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →