Brewers @ Cubs
2026-05-19Win probability
MIL
36.9%
CHC
48.6%
Extras needed
14.5%
Expected runs
MIL expected
3.96
CHC expected
4.38
Total expected
8.34
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIL–CHC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.73% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.56% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.33% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.30% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.10% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.10% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.83% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| 6.5 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 7.5 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| 8.5 | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 9.5 | 32.7% | 67.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →