Dodgers @ Padres
2026-05-19Win probability
LAD
81.8%
SD
10.3%
Extras needed
7.9%
Expected runs
LAD expected
5.60
SD expected
2.59
Total expected
8.19
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (LAD–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 2 | 4.64% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.02% |
| 6 – 2 | 3.89% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.34% |
| 5 – 1 | 3.33% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.30% |
| 7 – 2 | 3.25% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.19% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 20.8% | 79.2% |
| 6.5 | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 7.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 8.5 | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| 9.5 | 31.6% | 68.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →