Astros @ Twins
2026-05-19Win probability
HOU
29.2%
MIN
59.5%
Extras needed
11.2%
Expected runs
HOU expected
4.57
MIN expected
5.85
Total expected
10.42
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–MIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.05% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.01% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.87% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.75% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.75% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.74% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.58% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.44% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 6.5 | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 7.5 | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| 8.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 9.5 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →