White Sox @ Mariners
2026-05-19Win probability
CWS
34.8%
SEA
51.7%
Extras needed
13.5%
Expected runs
CWS expected
3.86
SEA expected
4.52
Total expected
8.39
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (CWS–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.21% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.66% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.62% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.42% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.24% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.21% |
| 2 – 4 | 2.91% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.79% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| 6.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 7.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 8.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 9.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →