MLB Sims

Indians @ Tigers

2026-05-19

Comerica Park · park factor 0.96 · first pitch 2026-05-19T22:40:00Z

Win probability

CLE
36.6%
DET
49.5%
Extras needed
13.9%

Expected runs

CLE expected
4.08
DET expected
4.56
Total expected
8.65
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (CLE–DET)Probability
3 – 53.65%
4 – 43.54%
3 – 33.33%
4 – 33.30%
4 – 53.22%
3 – 43.03%
5 – 42.92%
5 – 52.78%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 26.3% 73.7%
6.5 76.3% 23.7%
7.5 64.1% 35.9%
8.5 50.2% 49.8%
9.5 37.7% 62.3%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →