Reds @ Phillies
2026-05-19Win probability
CIN
39.4%
PHI
47.7%
Extras needed
13.0%
Expected runs
CIN expected
4.79
PHI expected
5.15
Total expected
9.94
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CIN–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.35% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.04% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.99% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.96% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.90% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.60% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.58% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.54% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| 6.5 | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| 7.5 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 8.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 9.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →