Red Sox @ Royals
2026-05-19Win probability
BOS
36.0%
KC
50.2%
Extras needed
13.8%
Expected runs
BOS expected
4.15
KC expected
4.68
Total expected
8.83
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (BOS–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.78% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.61% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.52% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.44% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.15% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.94% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.82% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.80% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| 6.5 | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 7.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 8.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 9.5 | 38.6% | 61.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →