Orioles @ Rays
2026-05-19Win probability
BAL
11.8%
TB
80.5%
Extras needed
7.6%
Expected runs
BAL expected
3.51
TB expected
6.79
Total expected
10.29
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (BAL–TB) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 6 | 3.26% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.23% |
| 3 – 7 | 3.11% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.97% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.76% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.75% |
| 2 – 8 | 2.68% |
| 2 – 7 | 2.61% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 6.5 | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| 7.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 8.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 9.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →