Braves @ Marlins
2026-05-19Win probability
ATL
56.4%
MIA
30.4%
Extras needed
13.2%
Expected runs
ATL expected
4.83
MIA expected
3.83
Total expected
8.66
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–MIA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.71% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.61% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.60% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.41% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.18% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.99% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.96% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.73% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| 6.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| 7.5 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 8.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 9.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →