Blue Jays @ Yankees
2026-05-18Win probability
TOR
16.8%
NYY
73.4%
Extras needed
9.8%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.41
NYY expected
5.74
Total expected
9.15
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–NYY) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 4.15% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.49% |
| 3 – 7 | 3.13% |
| 2 – 6 | 3.01% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.99% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.98% |
| 2 – 4 | 2.90% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.85% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 6.5 | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 7.5 | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 8.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 9.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →