Giants @ D-backs
2026-05-18Win probability
SF
40.4%
ARI
45.6%
Extras needed
14.0%
Expected runs
SF expected
3.81
ARI expected
4.05
Total expected
7.86
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (SF–ARI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.10% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.97% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.70% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.68% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.27% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.09% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.09% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.00% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| 6.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 7.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 8.5 | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| 9.5 | 26.7% | 73.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →