Mets @ Nationals
2026-05-18Win probability
NYM
49.1%
WSH
37.4%
Extras needed
13.6%
Expected runs
NYM expected
4.79
WSH expected
4.36
Total expected
9.15
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.53% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.32% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.16% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.16% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.11% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.11% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.89% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.82% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| 6.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 7.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 8.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 9.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →