Brewers @ Cubs
2026-05-18Win probability
MIL
29.5%
CHC
57.4%
Extras needed
13.1%
Expected runs
MIL expected
3.55
CHC expected
4.54
Total expected
8.09
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIL–CHC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.20% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.80% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.47% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.36% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.31% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.27% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.23% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.10% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| 6.5 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 7.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 8.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 9.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →