MLB Sims

Brewers @ Cubs

2026-05-18

Wrigley Field · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-18T23:40:00Z

Win probability

MIL
29.5%
CHC
57.4%
Extras needed
13.1%

Expected runs

MIL expected
3.55
CHC expected
4.54
Total expected
8.09
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (MIL–CHC)Probability
3 – 44.20%
3 – 53.80%
3 – 33.47%
2 – 43.36%
4 – 43.31%
2 – 53.27%
4 – 33.23%
4 – 53.10%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 18.7% 81.3%
6.5 69.6% 30.4%
7.5 55.3% 44.7%
8.5 41.3% 58.7%
9.5 29.0% 71.0%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →