Dodgers @ Padres
2026-05-18Win probability
LAD
83.8%
SD
9.4%
Extras needed
6.8%
Expected runs
LAD expected
6.12
SD expected
2.77
Total expected
8.89
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (LAD–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 2 | 4.13% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.98% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.85% |
| 7 – 2 | 3.60% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.36% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.25% |
| 7 – 3 | 3.15% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.99% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| 6.5 | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| 7.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 8.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 9.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →