Astros @ Twins
2026-05-18Win probability
HOU
31.6%
MIN
57.2%
Extras needed
11.2%
Expected runs
HOU expected
4.70
MIN expected
5.81
Total expected
10.51
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 10 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–MIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.41% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.80% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.78% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.71% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.69% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.54% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.48% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.43% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 6.5 | 90.2% | 9.8% |
| 7.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 8.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 9.5 | 60.1% | 39.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →