White Sox @ Mariners
2026-05-18Win probability
CWS
38.6%
SEA
47.7%
Extras needed
13.7%
Expected runs
CWS expected
4.12
SEA expected
4.43
Total expected
8.55
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (CWS–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.68% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.54% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.20% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.18% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.14% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.09% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.93% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| 6.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 7.5 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 8.5 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 9.5 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →