Indians @ Tigers
2026-05-18Win probability
CLE
29.8%
DET
57.2%
Extras needed
13.0%
Expected runs
CLE expected
3.76
DET expected
4.83
Total expected
8.59
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (CLE–DET) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.66% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.59% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.55% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.50% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.97% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.96% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.86% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.82% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| 6.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 7.5 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 8.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 9.5 | 36.4% | 63.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →