MLB Sims

Indians @ Tigers

2026-05-18

Comerica Park · park factor 0.96 · first pitch 2026-05-18T22:40:00Z

Win probability

CLE
29.8%
DET
57.2%
Extras needed
13.0%

Expected runs

CLE expected
3.76
DET expected
4.83
Total expected
8.59
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (CLE–DET)Probability
4 – 43.66%
3 – 43.59%
3 – 53.55%
4 – 53.50%
3 – 32.97%
2 – 52.96%
3 – 62.86%
4 – 32.82%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 25.2% 74.8%
6.5 75.1% 24.9%
7.5 62.4% 37.6%
8.5 49.0% 51.0%
9.5 36.4% 63.7%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →