Reds @ Phillies
2026-05-18Win probability
CIN
40.8%
PHI
46.6%
Extras needed
12.7%
Expected runs
CIN expected
4.84
PHI expected
5.17
Total expected
10.01
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CIN–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.21% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.00% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.99% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.99% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.81% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.60% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.49% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.44% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 6.5 | 86.4% | 13.6% |
| 7.5 | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 8.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 9.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →