Red Sox @ Royals
2026-05-18Win probability
BOS
33.8%
KC
53.3%
Extras needed
12.9%
Expected runs
BOS expected
4.26
KC expected
5.03
Total expected
9.29
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (BOS–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.67% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.30% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.27% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.02% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.00% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.91% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.91% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.80% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 6.5 | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 7.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| 8.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| 9.5 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →