Orioles @ Rays
2026-05-18Win probability
BAL
16.7%
TB
73.2%
Extras needed
10.1%
Expected runs
BAL expected
3.34
TB expected
5.69
Total expected
9.03
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (BAL–TB) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.70% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.46% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.44% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.41% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.11% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.98% |
| 2 – 6 | 2.87% |
| 3 – 7 | 2.87% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| 6.5 | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 7.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 8.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 9.5 | 41.5% | 58.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →