Braves @ Marlins
2026-05-18Win probability
ATL
69.8%
MIA
18.8%
Extras needed
11.4%
Expected runs
ATL expected
5.24
MIA expected
3.27
Total expected
8.51
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–MIA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.73% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.60% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.58% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.58% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.48% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.35% |
| 6 – 2 | 3.28% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.12% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| 6.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| 7.5 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 8.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 9.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →