Blue Jays @ Tigers
2026-05-17Win probability
TOR
28.1%
DET
57.8%
Extras needed
14.1%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.01
DET expected
4.03
Total expected
7.04
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–DET) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 – 3 | 4.54% |
| 2 – 4 | 4.47% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.30% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.25% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.89% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.49% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.44% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.30% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 10.6% | 89.4% |
| 6.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 7.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| 8.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| 9.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →