Rangers @ Astros
2026-05-17Win probability
TEX
54.3%
HOU
33.6%
Extras needed
12.1%
Expected runs
TEX expected
5.19
HOU expected
4.34
Total expected
9.53
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (TEX–HOU) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.63% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.14% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.04% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.99% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.84% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.69% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.68% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.67% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| 6.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 7.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 8.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 9.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →