Giants @ Athletics
2026-05-17Win probability
SF
42.5%
OAK
43.7%
Extras needed
13.8%
Expected runs
SF expected
4.56
OAK expected
4.56
Total expected
9.12
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (SF–OAK) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.81% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.31% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.25% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.19% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.12% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.97% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.91% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.61% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 30.8% | 69.2% |
| 6.5 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 7.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 8.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 9.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →