MLB Sims

Giants @ Athletics

2026-05-17

Sutter Health Park · park factor 0.96 · first pitch 2026-05-17T20:05:00Z

Win probability

SF
42.5%
OAK
43.7%
Extras needed
13.8%

Expected runs

SF expected
4.56
OAK expected
4.56
Total expected
9.12
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (SF–OAK)Probability
4 – 43.81%
5 – 43.31%
3 – 43.25%
4 – 53.19%
4 – 33.12%
5 – 52.97%
5 – 32.91%
3 – 52.61%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 30.8% 69.2%
6.5 80.6% 19.4%
7.5 69.1% 30.9%
8.5 56.1% 43.9%
9.5 42.5% 57.5%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →