Padres @ Mariners
2026-05-17Win probability
SD
43.8%
SEA
41.2%
Extras needed
15.0%
Expected runs
SD expected
3.78
SEA expected
3.73
Total expected
7.52
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (SD–SEA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.29% |
| 4 – 4 | 4.11% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.98% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.73% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.45% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.32% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.23% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.09% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 14.2% | 85.8% |
| 6.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 7.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 8.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| 9.5 | 23.0% | 77.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →