Phillies @ Pirates
2026-05-17Win probability
PHI
33.4%
PIT
54.4%
Extras needed
12.2%
Expected runs
PHI expected
4.18
PIT expected
5.01
Total expected
9.19
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (PHI–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.34% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.26% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.11% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.89% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.87% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.84% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.77% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.70% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 6.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 7.5 | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 8.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 9.5 | 44.1% | 55.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →