Yankees @ Mets
2026-05-17Win probability
NYY
62.2%
NYM
24.4%
Extras needed
13.4%
Expected runs
NYY expected
4.09
NYM expected
2.77
Total expected
6.86
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYY–NYM) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.56% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.52% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.50% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.96% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 1 | 3.56% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.48% |
| 3 – 1 | 3.29% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 8.9% | 91.1% |
| 6.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 7.5 | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| 8.5 | 25.8% | 74.2% |
| 9.5 | 15.8% | 84.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →