Brewers @ Twins
2026-05-17Win probability
MIL
50.0%
MIN
36.4%
Extras needed
13.7%
Expected runs
MIL expected
4.45
MIN expected
3.97
Total expected
8.41
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIL–MIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.92% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.86% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.68% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.49% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.39% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.33% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.14% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.82% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 22.3% | 77.7% |
| 6.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 7.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 8.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 9.5 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →