Marlins @ Rays
2026-05-17Win probability
MIA
21.4%
TB
66.8%
Extras needed
11.8%
Expected runs
MIA expected
3.40
TB expected
5.25
Total expected
8.66
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–TB) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.74% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.63% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.53% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.42% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.28% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.25% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.19% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.91% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| 6.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| 7.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 8.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 9.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →