MLB Sims

Dodgers @ Angels

2026-05-17

Angel Stadium · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-17T20:07:00Z

Win probability

LAD
90.9%
LAA
4.6%
Extras needed
4.5%

Expected runs

LAD expected
6.55
LAA expected
2.22
Total expected
8.77
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (LAD–LAA)Probability
6 – 24.39%
7 – 23.97%
6 – 13.82%
5 – 23.79%
7 – 13.38%
8 – 23.26%
5 – 13.25%
6 – 33.01%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 26.3% 73.7%
6.5 77.4% 22.6%
7.5 64.7% 35.3%
8.5 51.4% 48.6%
9.5 38.0% 62.0%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →