Royals @ Cardinals
2026-05-17Win probability
KC
26.6%
STL
59.1%
Extras needed
14.3%
Expected runs
KC expected
3.33
STL expected
4.49
Total expected
7.83
Total — 10/median/90
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Most likely final scores
| Score (KC–STL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.98% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.97% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.83% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.77% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.63% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.58% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.52% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.05% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 16.7% | 83.3% |
| 6.5 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 7.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 8.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 9.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →