Reds @ Indians
2026-05-17Win probability
CIN
25.2%
CLE
62.2%
Extras needed
12.6%
Expected runs
CIN expected
2.99
CLE expected
4.35
Total expected
7.34
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (CIN–CLE) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 – 4 | 4.41% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.34% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.77% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.76% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.73% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.65% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.21% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.10% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 12.4% | 87.6% |
| 6.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 7.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 8.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| 9.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →