Cubs @ White Sox
2026-05-17Win probability
CHC
44.5%
CWS
41.9%
Extras needed
13.5%
Expected runs
CHC expected
4.80
CWS expected
4.69
Total expected
9.49
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–CWS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.46% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.22% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.14% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.06% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.99% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.81% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.68% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.55% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| 6.5 | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| 7.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 8.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 9.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →