Red Sox @ Braves
2026-05-17Win probability
BOS
30.1%
ATL
55.6%
Extras needed
14.3%
Expected runs
BOS expected
3.43
ATL expected
4.39
Total expected
7.82
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (BOS–ATL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.10% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.09% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.92% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.73% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.69% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.26% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.21% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.16% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 16.8% | 83.2% |
| 6.5 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 7.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 8.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| 9.5 | 25.9% | 74.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →