Orioles @ Nationals
2026-05-17Win probability
BAL
29.0%
WSH
60.9%
Extras needed
10.1%
Expected runs
BAL expected
5.65
WSH expected
7.16
Total expected
12.81
Total — 10/median/90
8 / 13 / 18
Most likely final scores
| Score (BAL–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 7 | 2.64% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.46% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.41% |
| 5 – 8 | 2.37% |
| 6 – 7 | 2.35% |
| 4 – 7 | 2.32% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.24% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.18% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 6.5 | 97.2% | 2.8% |
| 7.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| 8.5 | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 9.5 | 82.2% | 17.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →