D-backs @ Rockies
2026-05-17Win probability
ARI
51.5%
COL
35.7%
Extras needed
12.8%
Expected runs
ARI expected
5.40
COL expected
4.81
Total expected
10.21
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (ARI–COL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.42% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.21% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.00% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.97% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.80% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.77% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.56% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.48% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| 6.5 | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| 7.5 | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| 8.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| 9.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →