Nationals @ Braves
2026-05-24Win probability
WSH
26.9%
ATL
60.7%
Extras needed
12.4%
Expected runs
WSH expected
3.81
ATL expected
5.13
Total expected
8.94
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (WSH–ATL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.62% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.61% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.27% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.19% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.98% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.95% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.90% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.75% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 6.5 | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 7.5 | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 8.5 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 9.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →