MLB Sims

Nationals @ Braves

2026-05-24

Truist Park · park factor 1.00 · first pitch 2026-05-24T20:10:00Z

Win probability

WSH
26.9%
ATL
60.7%
Extras needed
12.4%

Expected runs

WSH expected
3.81
ATL expected
5.13
Total expected
8.94
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13

Most likely final scores

Score (WSH–ATL)Probability
3 – 53.62%
4 – 53.61%
4 – 43.27%
3 – 43.19%
2 – 52.98%
3 – 62.95%
4 – 62.90%
3 – 32.75%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 28.6% 71.4%
6.5 78.8% 21.2%
7.5 66.8% 33.2%
8.5 53.6% 46.4%
9.5 40.3% 59.7%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →