Rays @ Yankees
2026-05-24Win probability
TB
28.0%
NYY
60.4%
Extras needed
11.6%
Expected runs
TB expected
4.34
NYY expected
5.72
Total expected
10.06
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (TB–NYY) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.40% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.34% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.16% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.69% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.63% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.60% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.59% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.58% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 6.5 | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| 7.5 | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 8.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 9.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →