Cardinals @ Reds
2026-05-24Win probability
STL
65.5%
CIN
24.0%
Extras needed
10.5%
Expected runs
STL expected
6.29
CIN expected
4.48
Total expected
10.77
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (STL–CIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 4 | 2.99% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.98% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.96% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.70% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.70% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.68% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.40% |
| 7 – 5 | 2.35% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 6.5 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| 7.5 | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 8.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 9.5 | 63.3% | 36.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →