Mariners @ Royals
2026-05-24Win probability
SEA
39.5%
KC
46.1%
Extras needed
14.4%
Expected runs
SEA expected
3.67
KC expected
3.91
Total expected
7.58
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (SEA–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.38% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.20% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.91% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.90% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.30% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.25% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.19% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| 6.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 7.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 8.5 | 34.6% | 65.3% |
| 9.5 | 23.4% | 76.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →